clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Betting challenge: Analytics predict upsets in store for Rangers and Aberdeen

Don't shoot the messenger, back him to get shot at 13/10 instead.

Cardiff City v Hull City - Premier League Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images

Both the punters and the stats backed Hearts last week, who turned out to be miserable failures, so pretty much everyone is at a loss which is determined by who decided to lump on the most. The only bets that came in, indeed, were Dougie backing Rangers at a measly 2/11, with Callum's Morton +2 bet at 6/5 recouping some losses.

So, the league table now looks like this:

John - £43 (£7 loss)

Dougie - £41.82 (£8.18 loss)

Callum - £41 (£9 loss)

James - £40 (£10 loss)

Phantom - £40 (£10 loss)

FettyWATP - £35 (£15 loss)

This week, it's an interesting mix. A couple of decent wee accumulators, while the stats predict bad news for Rangers. Elsewhere, both Aberdeen and Wales' TNS are laid, making it a poor weekend for livestock-interferers everywhere.


All of our odds come courtesy of McBookie, who specialise in SPFL betting. As a special offer this weekend in association with GTBFO, you can get a free £30 when you bet just £5 when you sign up through this link.


Dougie Wright (Statistical analyst)

Dundee/Draw Double Chance = 13/10 - £10

Kilmarnock/Draw Double Chance - 17/10 - £10

The model puts the probability of these two events on 64.5% and 52.4% respectively, while the implied probabilities from the bookie are 43.5% and 37%. Hopefully, that should mean both of these are well worth the value. The value on wins for both home teams are actually very slightly better, but since we're operating on a lower sample size we'll keep it slightly safer. I'd be happy to be wrong about us though!

Callum Hamilton (GTBFO chief)

Rangers to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 - 15/8 - £10

St Mirren - 8/5 - £10

Rangers are a bit unpredictable at the moment, as are Dundee, but I think we could get the job done and edge them out. If we do win it's probably going to be one of the scores above, so the value seems good. I'm also lending a glamorous, continental air to the betting challenge this week by backing St Mirren to prevail over The New Saints in the Challenge Cup. Yes, St Mirren are gash, but they've been doing well in the cups and they still should be a million times better than some Welsh jobbers. I know they pumped Livi but I'm confident here. 8/5 seems incredibly generous to me.

James Black (GTBFO co-chief)

HT Draw/FT Rangers - 18/5 - £5

Celtic 6-0 Motherwell - 18/1 - £5

Rangers will be looking for a second win under Graeme Murty, and Mark McGhee will be looking to make a pitch for a job at Celtic.


Special offer - this weekend, bet just £5 on Dundee vs Rangers and get a free £30 bonus. Sign up through this link to get the deal.


The Phantom (Phantom)

Phantom is away this week, so will presumably top the leaderboards next week as everyone else barrels through their savings.

John McIntosh (Optimistic punter)

Livi, St Mirren and Forfar threefold - £5 returns £49.50

Nothing on Rangers this week.

FettyWATP (Rangers meme purveyor)

Rangers to win 1-0 - 7/1 - £5

Hibs to win to nil, Celtic -2 and Forfar threefold - £15 returns £115.97

Can't see us playing that well, but think we'll still squeeze a win.