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Betting challenge: Can statistical models beat the punters and the bookies?

We pit the numbers versus the punters.

Rangers v Celtic - Betfred Cup Semi Final Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images

With the addition of our good friend Dougie Wright to the challenge, we've decided to reset things to see how his statistical models can get on with predicting the result. He'll be putting his money as well as his faith on his detailed simulations of SPFL games, while we'll stick to normal punting to see how the two styles match up.

That in mind, we've all had our buy-ins reset to the original £50 and we'll take it from here. So, what's on for this week?

All our odds come from McBookie, who offer the widest choice of markets on the SPFL. GTBFO readers can sign up through this link to get a free £25 bonus, or £30 if you place a £5 bet on Hearts vs Hibs.

Dougie Wright

Rangers to win - 2/11 - £10

Hearts and Dunfermline to win - £10 returns £61.88

According to my model, Hearts have a 58% chance of victory, while Dunfermline have 44%. Taking into account the possibility of a draw, that's a good chance for both teams. (Note: The bookies odds here have the implied probability for the two at 44% and 38% respectively, so this looks good if the model is trusted.)

Callum Hamilton

Morton (+2) - 6/5 - £5

Hearts vs Hibs, Both Teams To Score - 4/6 - £15

Cup football is unpredictable and Rangers are struggling while Morton are in fine form. We should still win, but I'm going for a safeish bet in the Edinburgh derby and backing Morton on the handicap.


Get a free £30 when you bet just £5 on Hearts vs Hibs this weekend - sign up here


James Black

Rangers 3-1 - 10/1 - £5

Celtic, Ayr, Hamilton, East Fife, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Hearts all to win - £5 returns £236.50

Rangers need a good win to get back on track after recent results and Morton shouldn't be any trouble. We'll still ship a stupid goal though.

The Phantom

Rangers to win 3-0 - 13/2 - £5

Inverness to win - 16/1 - £5

FettyWATP

St Johnstone, Aberdeen, Hearts, Livingston all to win - £10 returns £126.98

Rangers (-2) - 31/20 - £5

Not done research for this four fold because I'm too busy drinking my pint but Rangers are due a good performance so we should pump Morton.

John McIntosh

Rangers 2-0, Emerson Hyndman first goalscorer - 33/1 - £2

Aberdeen, St Johnstone, Hearts, St Mirren - £5 returns £97.35